Understanding Sea Level Rise

From Southern Fried Science:  Understanding Sea Level Rise

The Division of Coastal Management shall be the only State agency authorized to develop rates of sea-level rise and shall do so only at the request of the Commission. These rates shall only be determined using historical data, and these data shall be limited to the time period following the year 1900. Rates of sea-level rise may be extrapolated linearly to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise.
source (emphasis mine)

This is the text of the notorious, anti-science, anti-coastal community bill that was originally floated in the North Carolina state senate. A revised version of that bill is now under review, with new language that now mandates that:

The Commission and the Division of Coastal Management may collaborate with other State agencies, boards, commissions, other public entities, or institutions when defining sea-level rise or developing rates of sea-level rise. These rates shall be determined using statistically significant, peer-reviewed historical data generated using generally accepted scientific and statistical techniques. Historic rates of sea-level rise  may be extrapolated to estimate future rates of rise but shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise unless such rates are from statistically significant, peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends.
source (emphasis mine)

While this new language is almost certainly an improvement over the old bill, which was heavily supported by a lobbying group for coastal developers and heavily opposed by organizations that actually care what happens to the Carolina coastline and its historic communities, it is still problematic. By problematic, I mean wrong. And by wrong I mean that by refusing to allow accelerated estimates of sea level rise, it explicitly ignores all the best available science and contradicts 130 millenia of historic precedent.
Before I start discussing the data, I strongly recommend reading John Bruno’s Sea Level Rise 101 over at The SeaMonster, and his latest update: The NC sea level rise saga: mid-week update.
First, I’m going to take a step back in time. Let’s say, oh, about 130,000 years. Take a look at the graph below (which is from Rapid Changes in Glaciers and Ice Sheets and Their Impacts on Sea Level in the Encyclopedia of Earth:

(a) Record of sea-level change over the last 130,000 years. Thick blue line is reconstruction from δ18O records of marine sediment cores through regression analyses (Waelbroeck et al., 2002), with ±13 m error shown by thin gray lines. The × symbols represent individually dated shorelines from Australia (Stirling et al., 1995, 1998), New Guinea (Edwards et al., 1993; Chappell, 2002; Cutler et al., 2003), Sunda Shelf (Hanebuth et al., 2000), Bonaparte Gulf (Yokoyama et al., 2000), Tahiti (Bard et al., 1996), and Barbados (Peltier and Fairbanks, 2006). (b) Rate of sea level change (mm a-1) and equivalent freshwater flux (Sv, where 1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1 = 31,500 Gt a-1) derived from sea-level record in (a). Horizontal gray bars represent average rates of sea level change during the 20th century (lower bar) and projected for the end of the 21st century (upper bar) (Rahmstorf, 2007). source

If you looks at the changes in sea level (line a in the figure), you see that, rather than being clean, linear progressions, the pace of the change alters dramatically. Sea level change is always accompanied by acceleration or deceleration. There are very few points on that graph where a linear regression would be appropriate.
“But Andrew!” you might ask, “this graph covers more than 100,000 years! Isn’t it possible that on the scale of human civilization, a linear regression would be reasonable?” Great question! Let’s take a look at a narrower time series, say, since the last glacial maximum.

Image created by Robert A. Rohde / Global Warming Art. More details here.

What we see here is that the rate of sea level rise is patchy, it varies during the last 24 thousand years, and most of those variations are caused by changes in the global climate. “Aha!” you might now say, “I’ve got you! Look at that nice long plateau up near the top right. Isn’t that proof that sea level change has been stable in recent history and thus we should be using a linear extrapolation?” If that were the only variable in the universe, than yes, but we already know that changes in global climate alter the pace of sea level rise, we know that current human activities are altering the climate, and we know reasonably well how one change affects the other. I say reasonably, because, when we project out into the future using models, it’s an estimate, based on our best available knowledge. that doesn’t mean it can’t be wrong, but that also doesn’t mean it’s a wild guess.
So now we get to the heart of the claims by NC-20 and other lobbying groups that want to stick their feet, heads, and housing, in the sand:

Contrary to the predictions of Climate Movement activists, the best scientific evidence is that the
last 3/4 century of CO2 emissions and other human activities have resulted in no acceleration
(increase) in rate of sea level rise at all.
source

This argument is based on a now heavily debunked paper (see here, here, and here) that argues, based on cherry-picked data, that sea level rise has not accelerated over the last 70-odd years. So let’s look at one more graph:

Acceleration of sea-level rise (i.e., twice the quadratic coefficient) from different starting years up to 2001 in the global tide gauge data set of Church and White (2006; red line with uncertainty band). Note that after ~1960 the calculation gets excessively ‘noisy’ because the time interval gets too short to robustly compute acceleration. I graphed this right away after reading the Houston & Dean paper, and a few days later Tamino independently came up with a similar plot – it’s the obvious thing to do. The blue line shows the same quantity from the sea-level hindcast of Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009) computed from global temperature data. From RealClimate.

Notice that this is not a graph of sea level, this is a graph of the acceleration of sea level changes since 1870. From this, you can clearly see that sea level rise is accelerating. UPDATE: I originally misread the graph as rate of acceleration per year. It is actually rate of acceleration from each starting year.  Based on that, you can still see that sea level rise is accelerating, but also that, if you cherry pick your starting time from the 1930′s, a dishonest person could make it appear that sea level rise is not accelerating.  This is good news for lawmakers, since under the provisions of the NC bill that “Historic rates of sea-level rise… shall not include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea-level rise unless such rates are from statistically significant, peer-reviewed data and are consistent with historic trends”, which, as it turns out, they are. A more meaningful question might be, given how much we know about sea level rise over the last hundred millennia, what scientifically valid criteria is there for ever assuming a linear extrapolation is reasonable?
To put it another way, 130,000 years of data suggest that the least rational, least effective model for understanding changes in sea level is a linear extrapolation.
[Comment Note: The reality of anthropogenic global warming is not up for debate.

 

Australia: Turtles turned away as Cairns rehabilitation centre in crisis

From Cairns.com:  Turtles turned away as Cairns rehabilitation centre in crisis

A CAIRNS turtle rehabilitation centre has reached capacity and is being forced to turn away starving turtles after an increase in strandings.

Paul Barnes, from Cairns Turtle Rehabilitation Centre, said the centre was at capacity with a large number of adult turtles found floating in the Coral Sea.

Mr Barnes said sea grass stocks were depleted and had been only gradually recovering after cyclone Yasi ripped through north Queensland.

"The number of adult turtles (brought to the centre) have increased dramatically," he said.

"Last year was the largest stranding event in Queensland on record. There was a 500 per cent increase last year."

But with feeding grounds slow to recover, Mr Barnes said the centre was seeing stranding numbers return to last year’s levels.

Twelve turtles are being treated at the centre with most rescued over the past three months after the nesting season.

"We have another large (turtle) coming in this afternoon. We are starting to double them up (because) we have run out of tanks," Mr Barnes said.

Christian Miller, also from the organisation, said a turtle had to be euthanased recently because of the lack of tanks.

"Last week we had to knock back a large turtle," he said. "It’s the saddest story but you can only do as much as you can."

A 120kg male green turtle is being treated with antibiotics at the centre in the hope he will battle an infection and start eating again.

Mr Barnes believed the turtle was about 50 years old.

"He appears to have a gut blockage," he said.

"This one was found on June 1 floating off Dunk Island. It’s still too early to tell (if he will survive). The large green turtles can take three months before they feed."

Mr Barnes said a turtle of its size, in a healthy condition, should weigh 150kg and eat about 3kg of food a day.

The rehabilitation centre is the largest of its kind in Queensland and is run by a group of 30 volunteers.

Turtles found starving, with fishing and spear injuries or infected with papillomavirus are often taken to the centre.

Mr Barnes said the centre runs mostly on donations.

"Without raising more money we won’t be able to accept more turtles. It costs around $100-150 a day just for food."

Fisheries Queensland principal scientist Rob Coles said a reprieve could be in sight with sea grass slowly recovering.

"It’s a mixed picture. There’s definitely been an increase (of turtle strandings) because of no food (but) we are seeing some signs of sea grass recovery," he said.

"There is no evidence (sea grass) is in decline. We are hopeful it will keep growing if we keep getting sunny days and clear water.

‘‘As long as we don’t get any cyclone Yasis or Larrys."

For more information visit saveourseaturtles.com.au

 

Swedish scientists reveal findings of deep-sea 'alien' hunt

From FoxNews:  Swedish scientists reveal findings of deep-sea 'alien' hunt

wedish explorers have put to rest speculation of a spaceship at the bottom of the Baltic -- but they're adding fuel to the ‘what is it’ mystery of this deep-sea object anyway.

Digital pictures FoxNews.com has obtained from the team show that the object, located beneath the waves of the Baltic between Sweden and Finland, is some sort of “natural, geological formation,” Peter Lindberg, the leader of the Ocean Explorer team, told FoxNews.com.

“It’s not obviously an alien spacecraft. It’s not made of metal,” the scientist said. Lindberg concedes that it could be an alien space ship -- if the aliens decided to make their vessels out of meteor-like rocks. “Who says they had to use metal?” he joked. “This trip has raised a lot of questions.”

For 12 days, starting on June 1, 2012, Lindberg, his partner Dennis Asberg, and other scientists and divers explored the 200-foot wide object under the Baltic that they had first discovered a year ago on sonar. Employing a robot camera, sonar and deep sea divers, this time, Lindberg and Asberg spent nearly two weeks probing the object and its environs.

Scientists are still examining the footage from the expedition, but it appears like a giant stone, “the kind divers see in keys and harbors” -- one that seems to originate from before the Ice Age, Lindberg said. The main object was not the only thing seen by the explorers. “There are other, loose stones lying around as well,” he added. “The formation of rocks is 60 meters in diameter.”

While this unidentified flying object may have been identified, and likely never flew, it still holds secrets.
The odd thing about the discovery is that there is no silt on the rock, for example; it would ordinarily be covered with silt on the bottom of the sea, Lindberg said.

Even more odd for a seemingly natural formation, the main object is disc-shaped and “appears to have construction lines and boxes drawn on it,” Lindberg said. “There are also straight edges.”

The divers were limited in what they could see by their lighting technology. This gave them an illumination of only one meter at the most. Sonar was used to explore the object as well.

“The surface has cracks on it,” said Lindberg. “There is some black material in the cracks, but we don’t know what it is.”

Adding to the mystery, there appears to be a pillar which is holding up the 200 foot wide object, said Lindberg. “The pillar is eight meters high,” he added.

Divers explored the space, slowly, so as not to stir up undersea silt and interfere with digital photography. They collected stone samples from nearby the object as well as sonar images and digital images. “We’re going through the footage right now,” said Lindberg, who promised more footage for FoxNews after the team finished screening it.

“If an intelligent life form has built a spaceship, there’s the question of ‘why not make it out of stone or coral,’ he said.”

The discovery of what may or may not be the wreckage of an alien spacecraft that crash landed years ago off their sea coast has not created great anxiety in the populace of Sweden, a traditionally urbane and world weary culture. The oceanic equivalent of Roswell, N.M. is pretty much routine fare there, it seems.
“They’re taking it very cooly,” Lindberg told FoxNews.com. “If we had found actual aliens, they probably would say, ‘Oh, there are aliens down there.’"

"The Americans and the Japanese are much more excited.”

 

Uganda: Crocodile attacks on the rise

Okay - inland lakes, not oceans, but of interest nevertheless. It's the crocs that will be destroyed, of course.

The Africa Report: Uganda: Crocodile attacks on the rise

In the past year alone, more than 100 people have been mauled to death by the reptiles, but environmentalists say the number might be higher as some cases went undocumented.

"Although some cases are reported to police and the press, some in remote places like here are not reported at all," said a local leader, Nelson Ogala of Mayuge District, one of the most affected areas.

It is estimated that at least one person is killed or maimed every two to three days across the country.

The latest victim, being Perigio Masika, a 36 year-old mother of 4, who last Wednesday was dragged into Lake Edward in western Uganda and killed by a crocodile.

Masika had gone to draw water.

Village councillor, Eriya Mwoghwa confirmed the crocodile attack but blamed Uganda Wildlife Authority for failing to cage watering points as a means of safeguarding residents and their livestock.

Uganda Wildlife Authority spokesperson, Lillian Nsubuga attributes the rampant incidents of crocodile attacks to the destruction of their habitats by humans and competition for lake resources by people and crocodiles.

"When wild animals' habitual environment is destroyed, wildlife ends up targeting soft targets. In case of crocodiles they no longer get enough fish to feed on. The fish population has been decimated due to over fishing, so when they fail to get fish they attack human beings," Nsubuga said.

The fisheries department in Uganda has warned fishermen against catching pre-mature fish, as this led to their depletion. But on the other hand a number of people are resorting to fishing further straining the dwindling fish populations.

Nsubuga said the destruction of wetlands had seen people fetching water directly from the lakes, hence becoming easy prey for crocodiles.

"Due to increasing human population, wetlands were destroyed for settlement. The wetlands used to act as buffers between lakes and villages. People used to fetch water from wetlands but now they get it directly from the lake, hence endangering their lives," she added.

In eastern district of Namayingo, at Masoli landing site of Lake Victoria, several fishermen were killed in just one month.

The residents have appealed to the government to come to their rescue before more deaths are recorded.

The wildlife authority has on the other hand reacted by hunting the killer reptiles.

In the district of Mayuge, also on the shores of Lake Victoria, a crocodile believed to have killed four people was put down.

The acting executive director of the wild life authority, Andrew Seguya has since cautioned people living on lake shores and river banks against encroaching and destroying the forest, as this had caused a clash between people and wildlife.

NASA goes underwater (and goes social) to get set for asteroid mission

From MSNBC.com: NASA goes underwater (and goes social) to get set for asteroid mission

If NASA’s underwater practice session is any indication of what a real space mission to an asteroid will be like, you can expect to follow along with the exploration of a near-Earth asteroid via Facebook, Twitter and the Web — or whatever takes their place by the year 2025. There’s a string of chats and webcasts that let you in on the action at the Aquarius deep-sea habitat during the simulated mission, known as NEEMO 16.

As the "16" suggests, the space agency has been doing NEEMO — NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations — for more than a decade. The idea is to simulate the logistics associated with an extended space mission, as well as the isolation, by sending an astronaut crew into the Aquarius, 63 feet (19 meters) below the Atlantic Ocean's surface in the Florida Keys, and have them practice the routines they'd be doing in scuba gear.

This summer's 12-day simulation began on Monday with the four-person crew's "splashdown" into the sea. The NEEMO 16 crew is headed by NASA astronaut Dottie Metcalf-Lindenburger, who flew into space on the shuttle Discovery in 2010, and also includes Japanese astronaut Kimiya Yui, British astronaut Timothy Peake and Cornell astronomer Steve Squyres (who's the top scientist on the Mars rover team, the chairman of the NASA Advisory Council, and a veteran of NEEMO 15). Aquarius habitat technicians Justin Brown and James Talacek play support roles underwater.

Last year marked the first time that the NEEMO exercise was designed in line with the space agency's current plan to send a crew to a near-Earth asteroid by 2025. This year, the four-person crew will bring even more of a sense of realism to the simulation: For instance, they're communicating with an onshore Mission Control team on a delayed basis, to reflect the light travel times that would be involved with a deep-space mission.

They're also experimenting with different ways to explore an asteroid-style surface. Because a small asteroid has nearly negligible gravity, astronauts won't be able to tramp across it as if it were Earth or even the moon. One option would be to use attachment points and handholds to move across the asteroid surface. Another option would be to use mini-spacecraft to hover over and touch down on the surface. Both techniques are being tested during NEEMO 16.

During the latter part of the simulation, Nuytco's DeepWorker one-person submersibles will be deployed for underwater excursions by the NEEMO aquanauts. "They get flown around the reef with their personal transporters," Saul Rosser, operations director for the Aquarius Reef Base, told me today.

The crew members also plan to conduct a variety of experiments that play off the fact that the atmospheric pressure inside the Aquarius habitat is equal to the surrounding water pressure at depth — which is about 2.5 times the air pressure at the surface. The experiments will show whether simple tasks such as blowing a bubble or operating a remote-controlled device are tougher at high pressure than they are at normal pressure.

To add a social-media angle, folks who are following the NEEMO mission will be invited to predict the outcome of each experiment. Starting on Thursday, watch for announcements on the following forums: NASA's NEEMO Facebook page and Twitter account, the JSC Education Facebook page and "Teaching From Space" Twitter account, and the European Space Agency's Facebook page and Twitter account. This NASA Web page provides details on how to compete, and what you can win.

You can also monitor the NEEMO 16 mission via the this Ustream live-video page or this Aquarius webcam page, and watch for updates on Flickr and YouTube. Web-streamed educational activities are planned every day for the next week and beyond, in cooperation with the Challenger Center for Space Science Education. The interactive webcasts will be supplemented by chat capability.

The Aquarius Reef Base is the world's only undersea research station, situated three and a half miles (5.6 kilometers) off Key Largo on a sandy patch of seafloor sitting next to spectacular coral reefs. It's owned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and operated by the University of North Carolina at Wilmington. NEEMO ranks among the highlights of Aquarius' research season, but Rosser said there's more to come.

This year marks the 50th anniversary of Aquarius' founding, and to mark the occasion, Rosser and his colleagues are planning an underwater extravaganza next month. He was reluctant to provide the details, but a sneak peek that was posted online says the golden-anniversary mission will be led by two pioneers of marine science, Sylvia Earle and Mark Patterson.

"Stay tuned," Rosser said.

New report puts real numbers behind history of oyster reefs

From Science Codex: New report puts real numbers behind history of oyster reefs

In an effort to advance the field of coastal restoration, The Nature Conservancy and a team of scientists from more than a dozen management agencies and research institutions led by the University of Cambridge conducted an in-depth study of oyster reef area and, for the first time, the actual biomass (the "living weight") of oyster reefs in dozens of estuaries throughout the United States.

'Historical ecology with real numbers', published today in Proceedings of the Royal Society B, presents the first truly quantitative estimates of decline in oyster habitat over such a large spatial and temporal scale.

The findings show that while that oyster reef area declined by 64% over the last century, the total biomass, or living weight of oysters on reefs, had dropped by 88% during this period, revealing that simple physical area is an unreliable indicator of habitat status.

The good news, according to lead author Dr. Philine zu Ermgassen of University of Cambridge, is that the study gives a much-needed historical picture of conditions in specific bays and estuaries, something that will aid in future restoration efforts.

"Oysters were a valuable resource, even a century ago, so government surveyors mapped vast acreages and built up a story of a critically important habitat in wonderful detail," said Dr. zu Ermgassen. "Although somewhat unfamiliar to us here in Europe the humble oyster was once so numerous, both here and in the United States, that it formed large physical structures – oyster reefs – that rose up in banks off the sea bed.

"Using meticulous records compiled 100 years ago, we have been able to accurately quantify the changes in oyster reefs over time. Anecdotes have been converted to hard facts. Of course there have been huge losses in area, but that is only part of the story. We've also noted changes in density and structure of the remaining oysters, such that what is left is a much depleted habitat. Managers and scientists need to pay closer attention to density when setting restoration or conservation objectives."

"In addition to aiding restoration, the study will inspire it," says co-author Dr. Mark Spalding, a lead scientist with The Nature Conservancy's Global Marine Program, and also based at Cambridge. Indeed, the authors are keen to point out that the US is leading the world in turning things around for these habitats, with restoration work underway in numerous estuaries to restore oyster habitat.

"This is a call to action, and these findings will provide funders and managers with a powerful baseline – a clear vision of how things were – and an opportunity to establish meaningful goals and targets. The findings have implications beyond oyster reefs, however. Almost all of our concerns about the loss of natural areas – from forests and wetlands to seagrass meadows and kelp beds – are based on an estimation of change in area," said Dr. Spalding. "This study shows that the losses may be even worse than we thought, because the quality of the remaining patches of habitat may be so diminished that it is not providing the function we expect from any given area."

Source: University of Cambridge

Australia: Fishermen cry foul on marine reserve carve-up

From Canberra Times: Fishermen cry foul on marine reserve carve-up
FISHERMEN are claiming they are the ''soft target'' in a proposed network of marine reserves they say will harm their industry while largely leaving alone the more lucrative offshore oil and gas business.

Federal Environment Minister Tony Burke is expected this week to finalise the plan for the marine reserves, which will stretch around Australia and will curb commercial and recreational fishing.

It will create the world's largest marine protection area with a new Coral Sea reserve extending out beyond the Great Barrier Reef. The network will also establish a large protected area off the south-west coast and patchwork reserves in the Great Australian Bight and off the west, north-west and northern coasts.

It is understood Mr Burke is at odds with Resources Minister Martin Ferguson over some aspects of the network. Mr Ferguson recently announced that 27 new areas were up for oil and gas exploration, including some within proposed reserves.

The reserves would offer differing levels of protection, ranging from a ban on commercial fishing and mining, to ''multiple-use zones'' that allow some activities but not others.

Mr Burke said yesterday that no decision had yet been made. But he talked up the proposed reserves as the largest act of conservation in Australia's history. ''We are looking at possibly the most significant individual step in conservation that Australia has seen … ''

He said the world's oceans were underappreciated but that decisions Australia had in front of it ''give us the opportunity to lead the way in turning the corner''.

The ABC published a draft map of the proposed reserves on its website yesterday. Brian Jeffriess, a spokesman for the Commonwealth Fisheries Association, said it would be ''extremely disappointing'' if the map closely resembled the final decision. Fishermen were particularly concerned that a compensation package would come well after the announcement of the final boundaries for the reserves, leaving them in a state of uncertainty for months.

He said it focused unfairly on the fishing industry while leaving promising areas for oil and gas, such as the north-west and the Great Australian Bight, relatively unaffected.

''It exempts oil and gas virtually altogether,'' he said. ''The government clearly takes a position, which to some extent we understand, that energy security is more important as a revenue generator. (We're) certainly the soft target.''

One of the areas Mr Ferguson has approved for oil and gas exploration, just north of the Rowley Shoals coral atolls west of Broome, falls within a ''multiple-use zone'' in the draft, meaning mining could go ahead. This approval, just last month, means that Mr Burke cannot extend the area to a full marine sanctuary, which would ban mining.