Feds, Fla. officials differ from scientists on when oil will hit S. Fla., how bad it will be

Feds, Fla. officials differ from scientists on when oil will hit S. Fla., how bad it will be

In Florida — a state accustomed to tracking the minutia of impending hurricanes — forecasting is everything.

But recent forecasts coming from those planning to protect Florida's coast from another potential disaster, the oil relentlessly spewing from the wreck of the Deepwater Horizon, are much different than the forecasts from scientists and environmentalists who study and guard the coast.

The state's emergency responders downplayed the threat to Florida in a briefing for Senate President Jeff Atwater on Wednesday. South Floridians can expect an occasional tar ball to wash ashore, but they probably will never see oil from the recent spill lapping onto beaches, Florida Emergency Management Director David Halstead told Atwater, R-North Palm Beach.

"If we look at two weeks in the Florida sun, most of that is going to be evaporated," Halstead said. "There is a possibility you'll see very little of any sheen ever even make it down all the way to the Keys."

Even if the oil sheen was caught in the Loop Current, environmental damage in South Florida would be "minimal," Doug Darling, the Florida Environmental Preservation Department chief of staff told Atwater.

"If dolphins or manatees swim through it and come up to surface for air, they're going to get a slight coating," Darling said. "But the fish swimming at 100 feet at not affected by it at all."

Scientists do not agree. The marine animals at the greatest danger are those that must surface for air — such as dolphins, manatees and turtles. Every time they surface for air they are covered again in oil and breath the toxic fumes at the surface.

Deepwater marine life are not safe either, experts say.

Chemical dispersants have caused the oil break up and infiltrate the entire water column. That means marine life on the ocean floor, especially corals, could be damaged.

"If oil is floating on the surface, it is not as available to harm things that live on the bottom," said Richard Dodge, dean of Nova Southeastern's Oceanographic Center and head of the National Coral Reef Institute. "If it is dispersed — either by chemicals or nature — the more it will come in contact with other organisms."

Scientists aboard a research vessel who studied the spill for 12 days said Monday that the oil had already entered the loop current and on Tuesday, they forecast it could reach the Florida Keys by Sunday.

Tar balls that washed up on Key West beaches Tuesday were not from the Deepwater Horizon spill, federal officials said. Lab results released Wednesday, after the U.S. Coast Guard flew the samples from Miami to a lab in Groton, Conn., revealed the 50 or so three- to eight-inch tar balls did not come from Deepwater Horizon.

Also on Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed what the academic scientists had been saying since Monday: that the oil is in the loop current, a wobbly current about 80-100 miles from Florida's west coast that will likely push the oil around the Gulf of Mexico, the Florida Straits and into the Gulf Stream that travels up the east coast of the United States and across the Atlantic to Great Britain.

But NOAA predicted it would take at least eight days for the oil to get to Florida.

What difference could four days make? Plenty, experts say. The longer the travel time from the loop current to the Florida Keys, the more time the oil has to evaporate, emulsify and dilute.

In a press release issued on Wednesday, NOAA minimized the danger posed to Florida's coast: "In the time it would take for oil to travel to the vicinity of the Florida Straits, any oil would be highly weathered and both the natural process of evaporation and the application of chemical dispersants would reduce the oil volume significantly."

A day earlier, Congresswoman Kathy Castor — who represents the west coast of Florida — had a different take on the threat to Florida.

"This could be an impending disaster for Florida's Dry Tortugas National Park, the Everglades and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. These are simply the most unique and diverse ecosystems in the world and a linchpin to our tourism industry, our fishing industry and our way of life in Florida."